Toast

I found a great post on the blog titled "Malstrom's Articles News." I don't know anything about the site or the person - I followed a link from another blog. The title of the post is "Toast," and is about how he feels Obama is toast in this election. It is very long and, unless you skim, will probably take 20-30 minutes to read completely through. There is just so much good stuff in there I'm going to save it as a PDF file to refer to again later.

Below is one paragraph from the section about Broken Glass Conservatives. That section explains well one of the reasons for my gut feeling about the election.

"One of the reasons why Democrats lost the elections of 2002, 2004, and won in 2006 so handily is the appearance (and disappearance) of the phenomenon I refer to as ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. Conservatives are generally apathetic and have been lately about their candidates. While Bush was a Republican, he was not a conservative. He was conservative on a few things, the things that mattered most to conservatives (foreign policy, judges, taxes), but Bush has no interest in the conservative movement and doesn’t want to ‘lead’ it unlike Reagan. So conservative support for Republican candidates have been very soft (as illustrated in 2006). But if a Democrat or the legacy media (who conservatives believe are the same) insult or attack conservatives or what they believe, the result is ‘broken glass conservatives’ meaning the apathetic, soft Republican (or Democrat) conservative suddenly turns enraged and will literally walk over ‘broken glass’, if need be, to vote. ‘Broken glass conservatives’ phenomenons are all easily prevented if someone had some sense. An example of a ‘broken class conservative’ scenario would be Congressman Murtha (twice) declaring western Pennslyvania as ‘racists’. Remember, Murth’s district is mostly Democrat, and they know about Murtha’s shenanigans (the idea of ‘he’s a crook, but he is OUR crook’). But conservative Democrats took the insult personally and, out of the blue, Murtha’s safe seat suddenly becomes competitive . In 2004, the ‘broken glass conservatives’ were generated by, what conservatives felt, media bias in that veterans who served with Kerry were never had the spotlight shown (which they resorted to their own ads which became the ‘SwiftBoat Ads’) as well as Dan Rather and the forged memos."

Again, the whole post is here. I sure enjoyed reading through it. It is a relatively factual analysis that doesn't really attack either candidate.

Of course, voter fraud would throw a wrench into any thoughtful analysis.